Understanding how market makers manipulate the market through "washing trades" and whether retail investors will hold onto their tokens indefinitely. "Part Three" 1️⃣ First Question: The Real Purpose of Market Makers' Washing Trades 🟨 Washing trades ≠ Simply grabbing tokens Many people believe that market makers use washing trades to seize tokens from retail investors. While this view has some merit, it is not entirely accurate. The true goal of washing trades is to create market panic and volatility, thereby eliminating weak holders (floating tokens) and collecting more tokens at a lower cost while reducing resistance for future price increases. In simple terms, washing trades aim to optimize the market maker's portfolio structure rather than merely grabbing tokens from retail investors. 🟨 Lowering Costs and Reducing Selling Pressure Let’s understand the logic behind market makers' operations through an example. Suppose an anonymous team issues a MEME token with a total supply of 1 billion tokens and an initial price of $0.01. The project team locks 50 million tokens in a liquidity pool to establish a base position and then uses bot programs on decentralized exchanges to create price fluctuations: 🚩 Phase 1: Raise the price from $0.01 to $0.03, attracting the first wave of FOMO funds. 🚩 Phase 2: Use multiple accounts for wash trading, creating three consecutive days of 15% daily declines. 🚩 Phase 3: Spread rumors like "team exit scam" on Telegram and Twitter to trigger panic selling. 🚩 Phase 4: Buy back tokens at low prices and announce exchange listings to drive aggressive price increases. During this process, the project team reduces its holding cost from $0.012 to $0.008 and increases its holdings from 50 million to 80 million tokens, laying the foundation for future market control. Through this series of operations, the market maker accumulates more tokens at a lower cost while eliminating weak retail investors, reducing selling pressure for price increases. 🟨 Preparing for Price Increases and High-Level Selling Another key purpose of washing trades is to create conditions for price increases and high-level selling. If market makers do not eliminate floating tokens through washing trades and directly increase token prices, retail investors may lock their tokens due to a reluctance to sell (hoping for higher prices), making it difficult for market makers to sell at high levels. By washing trades, market makers can filter out strong holders and attract new followers, enabling them to "raise and sell"—push prices higher while gradually selling tokens, ultimately cashing out at high levels. For example, in the MEME token case mentioned earlier, the project team holds 80 million tokens at a cost of $0.008 after washing trades. They then raise the price from $0.008 to $0.015 and then to $0.02, gradually heating up market sentiment as retail investors chase higher prices. When the price reaches $0.05, the project team sells 70 million tokens at a cost of $0.008, earning approximately $3.5 million in profit. Afterward, they may use the remaining 10 million tokens to continue manipulating prices between $0.03 and $0.01, collecting tokens again for the next round of speculation. 2️⃣ Second Question: Will Market Makers Keep Washing Trades Indefinitely? 🟨 Time Costs of Washing Trades Market makers will not wash trades indefinitely because the duration of washing trades is constrained by funding costs. Market makers often use leveraged funds, which have high borrowing costs. The longer the washing trades last, the higher the interest expenses. Therefore, if retail investors refuse to sell their tokens, market makers may intensify washing trades (e.g., larger price drops or stronger negative news) but will not continue indefinitely. Their goal is to collect tokens at the lowest cost possible. Once they reach their desired holding amount, they will move into the price increase phase. 🟨 Limits of Washing Trades When retail investors generally hold a strong bullish attitude and refuse to sell during washing trades, market makers may face two choices: 🚩 Adjust strategy: Increase the intensity of washing trades, such as larger price suppression or more alarming negative news, to force retail investors to sell their tokens. 🚩 Advance price increases: If washing trades are ineffective and market makers have already collected enough tokens to control the market (e.g., 70%-80% of circulating supply), they may directly move into the price increase phase, leveraging market sentiment to push prices higher and then sell at high levels. Thus, market makers will not wash trades indefinitely but will flexibly adjust their strategy based on market reactions and their financial situation. The longer washing trades last, the higher the price market makers may need to push to cover costs, but this also increases market risks (e.g., systemic collapse or regulatory intervention). 3️⃣ Third Question: How to Identify Market Makers' Washing Trade Intentions? 🟨 Differences Between Washing Trades and Selling Retail investors often struggle to distinguish between washing trades and selling. The core difference lies in: 🚩 Washing trades: Prices drop and then recover, with an upward trend aimed at low-cost accumulation and reducing selling pressure. 🚩 Selling: Prices continue to drop, trading volume shrinks, and the trend is downward, aimed at cashing out at high levels. Observing the following indicators can help identify: 🚩 Turnover rate: During washing trades, turnover rates are usually high, indicating funds are accumulating at low levels; during selling, turnover rates gradually decrease, showing a lack of market support. 🚩 Trend lines: During washing trades, prices rely on moving averages (e.g., 20-day moving average) to move upward; during selling, prices break below moving averages, and the moving averages turn downward. 🟨 Common Washing Trade Patterns Market makers often use the following washing trade methods in the crypto market: 🚩 Intraday washing trades: Prices suddenly drop during the trading day and quickly recover, common in strong tokens, aiming to scare out panic sellers. 🚩 5-day moving average washing trades: Prices retrace to the 5-day moving average and then continue upward, suitable for short-term strong tokens. 🚩 20-day moving average washing trades: Prices retrace to the 20-day moving average, completing intermediate washing trades, suitable for medium- to long-term tokens. 🚩 Triangle washing trades: Prices fall from high levels to the starting point, forming a triangle pattern, suitable for early-stage bull tokens. 4️⃣ How Should Retail Investors Respond to Washing Trades? 🟨 Hold Onto Bottom-Level Tokens When facing market makers' washing trades, retail investors should avoid panic selling, especially when holding low-cost tokens. Methods to identify bottom-level areas include: 🚩 Token concentration: Bottom-level token concentration areas are usually the market maker's cost zone. 🚩 Turnover rate: A turnover rate exceeding 200% over a period may indicate the market maker's cost zone. 🚩 Volume clusters: The average price of volume clusters often approximates the market maker's cost. 🚩 Large sell orders: Large sell orders in the order book often indicate the market maker's cost zone, and prices usually rise after suppression. As long as retail investors' holding costs are lower than the market maker's, there is no need to worry about being washed out. 🟨 Rationally Judge Trends Retail investors should avoid subjective assumptions, such as blindly believing that price drops are washing trades or price increases are traps. It is recommended to judge trends based on market signals (e.g., moving average direction, trading volume changes) and perform high-selling and low-buying at key points (e.g., market maker cost zones) while waiting for price increases. 🟨 Risk Control Market makers' operations in the crypto market are often "silent but deadly." Retail investors should allocate funds reasonably and avoid over-concentrating on a single token. If unable to discern market makers' intentions, it is best to avoid highly manipulated tokens and choose fundamentally strong top-tier projects for investment. Finally In reality, market makers are skilled at washing trades, but when retail investors refuse to sell their tokens, market makers will not continue washing trades indefinitely. The purpose of washing trades is to collect tokens at low costs, reduce selling pressure during price increases, and pave the way for high-level selling, not simply to seize retail investors' tokens. Due to time costs and financial pressures, market makers will adjust their strategies when washing trades are ineffective, either intensifying efforts or advancing price increases. The key for retail investors to respond to washing trades is to remain calm, hold onto low-cost tokens, and judge trends through market signals. By understanding market makers' operational logic and cost zones, retail investors can avoid becoming "cannon fodder" and even dance with market makers to share the profits. In the crypto market, which is full of strategic games, understanding the deeper meaning of market makers' washing trades is the first step for retail investors to protect their interests. Hope this article provides inspiration and helps you approach future investments with greater confidence. Let’s grow together!
How Market Makers Execute the Full Process of Shakeout and Harvesting "Part Two" Continuing from the previous article, shakeout in the crypto space refers to the manipulation of coin prices by major players or market makers through specific trading techniques to clean out floating chips and consolidate control. Shakeout primarily aims to make ordinary players sell their chips at relatively low prices. The method involves prolonged sideways consolidation, sharp drops, and other tactics to test the patience and confidence of holders, ultimately forcing them to hand over their low-priced chips to the major players, laying the groundwork for the main upward trend. 1️⃣ Core Objectives of Market Maker Shakeout ◽️ Replace chips outside the plan: Drive early holders out of the market to prevent excessive profits, mid-term sell-offs, and price crashes that could threaten or disrupt the major players' operational plans. This avoids excessive costs for price elevation or interference with smooth distribution. ◽️ Continuously replace holders at different stages: Raise the cost of holding for new entrants, further reducing the pressure on major players to elevate coin prices in the future. Repeated shakeouts increase the average holding cost, aiding major players in offloading coins at higher prices without scaring off retail investors prematurely, allowing for orderly distribution later. ◽️ High-frequency trading during shakeout: Major players can earn a portion of the spread to offset the higher transaction costs incurred during the price elevation phase. This increases their capital for future price elevation, boosts confidence, and obscures their cost structure, making it harder for the market to pinpoint their distribution points. ◽️ Adjust capital ratios: If major players acquire a large proportion of chips at the bottom, leaving insufficient capital for price elevation, they can sell at higher prices during the initial shakeout phase to restore their elevation power. ◽️ Wait for further maturity: By shaking out and consolidating, major players encourage early selling, reducing floating chips. When most chips are concentrated in their hands, elevating coin prices becomes relatively easier, setting the stage for the main upward trend (distribution). 2️⃣ Core Techniques of Market Maker Shakeout Shakeout without eliminating retail investors is almost impossible. As long as retail investors are monitoring the market, major players have ways to shake them out. If retail investors are not sufficiently cleaned out, it will impact the major players' operational plans, which is unacceptable to them. Major players employ various tactics to clean out retail investors, with three particularly effective ones that rarely leave retail investors unshaken: 🟨 "Grinding": Major players often use the "grinding" tactic to consolidate the bottom, extending the duration significantly while keeping coin prices stagnant. Prices rise by 1U and drop by 2U, forcing impatient retail investors out of the market. 🟨 "Pitfall": After "grinding," if many retail investors remain, major players create pitfalls to continue the shakeout. They engineer rapid, high-volume price drops, creating a sense of a breakdown with no visible bottom. This instills fear in retail investors, leaving them uncertain about how much further prices will drop. Many retail investors fall into these pitfalls and never recover. 🟨 "Coercion and Enticement": If the above two tactics fail to achieve the desired shakeout, major players resort to "coercion and enticement." This involves testing the market by elevating prices, giving retail investors a chance to break even or make small profits, prompting them to sell. For those who don't sell, major players control prices to naturally decline, forcing retail investors out. Below are some common shakeout methods and their characteristics: 🔻 1/ Suppressive Shakeout Suppressive shakeout occurs when major players complete accumulation and significant testing, leading to a market with substantial profit-taking. Major players exploit investors' desire to take profits by aggressively suppressing prices, causing sharp declines and amplifying market panic. This shakes investors' confidence, forcing them to relinquish their chips, achieving the goal of cleaning out floating chips. This method is characterized by speed and intensity, with rapid price suppression and significant declines. It is typically employed by powerful, skilled major players targeting speculative coins with fast capital inflows and short-term price surges. 🔻 2/ Sideways Shakeout Also known as platform shakeout, this method involves coin prices forming a prolonged consolidation pattern within a specific range. Major players exploit investors' impatience by using time to erode their will and patience, forcing them to relinquish their chips. During the sideways phase, retail investors' chips are fully exchanged within the trading platform, with trading volume gradually shrinking. This method is often used by weaker major players, relying on prolonged dull trends to erode retail investors' confidence, trading time for space. It is the most time-consuming shakeout method. 🔻 3/ Volatile Shakeout Volatile shakeout combines elevation, sideways consolidation, and suppression, making it the most commonly used method by major players. Its advantage lies in avoiding the loss of low-priced chips compared to suppressive shakeout and shortening the shakeout duration compared to sideways shakeout. Major players use repeated upward and downward volatility to shake out chips, confusing market participants about their true intentions and disrupting their trading rhythm, forcing them to exit and observe. This method is highly deceptive, with active trading volume and coin prices oscillating within a range. On daily candlestick charts, it often appears as triangular, rectangular, or flag-shaped consolidation patterns. 🔻 4/ Pinning and Contract Liquidation Shakeout As the crypto market enters a volatile shakeout phase, price fluctuations intensify. Major players use pinning and contract liquidation to clean out over-leveraged and weak-confidence chips, preparing for the next upward trend. This method creates larger price swings, allowing major players to distribute at higher prices or accumulate at lower prices for greater profits. During this process, market sentiment fluctuates sharply, weakening spot pricing power and increasing trading risks. 🔻 5/ Rapid Drop and Rise Shakeout Rapid drop and rise is another common shakeout method used by major players. This method targets weak-confidence chips and technical traders. Coin prices drop rapidly and then quickly rebound in a V-shaped reversal, confirming that the preceding drop was a shakeout. This method uses rapid price fluctuations to instill panic in investors, forcing them to relinquish their chips. To achieve the goal of forcing most retail investors out while avoiding detection, major players adapt their shakeout methods based on market holding conditions, changes in specific holders, and various objective factors. 3️⃣ How to Follow Market Maker Shakeout Rhythm for Entry 🟢 Narrow Range Shrinking Volume "Weaving Machine" Consolidation at the Bottom Characteristics: Coin prices consolidate narrowly at the bottom, with trading volume gradually shrinking, forming a "weaving machine" pattern. Major players accumulate chips during this phase, waiting for the right moment to initiate an upward trend. Action: Major players leverage positive news to create high-volume bullish candlesticks, initiating an upward trend. Investors should monitor trading volume changes to confirm whether this is a signal of major players accumulating and initiating. 🟢 Wide Range Shrinking Volume Consolidation at the Bottom Characteristics: Coin prices consolidate widely at the bottom, with limited upward movement and low trading volume. Major players use this method to clean out weak-confidence chips. Action: When coin prices break resistance levels, retail investors often enter. Major players may continue creating volatility to further clean out chips. Investors should monitor post-breakout trading volume changes to confirm whether the breakout is valid. 🟢 Gradual Upward Shakeout After Technical Stabilization Characteristics: Coin prices stabilize technically and begin gradual upward movement, with trading volume gradually increasing. Major players use this method to clean out weak-confidence chips. Action: Retail investors should enter early and hold. When high-volume bullish candlesticks appear, consider exiting. Investors should monitor trading volume changes to confirm whether this is a shakeout by major players. 🟢 Double Bottom Shakeout Without Volume Increase Characteristics: Coin prices form a double bottom pattern, with alternating slight declines between the left and right bottoms, and trading volume remains low. Major players use this method to lure technical traders out. Action: When coin prices break above previous highs with high volume, it is a good entry point. Investors should monitor trading volume changes to confirm whether this signals the end of the shakeout. 🟢 Rapid Drop and Rise Shakeout Characteristics: Coin prices drop rapidly and then rebound in a V-shaped reversal, targeting weak-confidence and technical traders. Action: When the V-shaped reversal is confirmed, investors can consider entering. Investors should monitor trading volume changes to confirm whether this is a shakeout by major players. 🟢 Gradual Decline Shakeout Characteristics: Coin prices decline gradually, with trading volume shrinking. Major players use this method to create market panic and clean out weak-confidence chips. Action: Investors should monitor volume changes. When trading volume shows significant changes, it may signal stabilization, and entry can be considered. 🟢 Horizontal Consolidation with Small Gains and Losses After Decline Characteristics: After a decline, coin prices enter a horizontal consolidation phase with small gains and losses, and trading volume slightly increases. Major players use this method to further clean out chips. Action: When small bullish and bearish candlesticks stabilize, consider building positions. Investors should monitor trading volume changes to confirm whether this is a shakeout by major players. 🟢 V-Shaped Reversal Shakeout Characteristics: Coin prices form a V-shaped reversal, similar to a double bottom but without a right shoulder pullback. Major players use this method to create a strong "head and shoulders bottom" pattern, preventing retail investors from entering. Action: Investors should monitor trading volume changes during the reversal to confirm whether this is a shakeout by major players. When the reversal is confirmed, consider entering. 🟢 Gradual Upward Movement with Shrinking Volume After Stabilization Characteristics: Coin prices stabilize and rise gradually with shrinking volume, maintaining low trading volume. Major players use this method to clean out weak-confidence chips, forming a stable pattern. Action: Investors should hold and wait for price increases, monitoring trading volume changes to confirm whether this is a shakeout by major players. When trading volume shows significant changes, it may signal that major players are preparing for accelerated upward movement. 🟢 Small Buying Frenzy Followed by Pullback Characteristics: After a small buying frenzy, major players may conduct a shakeout to cool the market and gather energy for subsequent upward movement. Action: The low-volume pullback after a small buying frenzy is an excellent entry point. Investors can enter after the pullback ends and confirm trading volume increases. 🟢 Volume Change Shakeout Characteristics: During the shakeout, trading volume typically shrinks. When coin prices start rising, trading volume increases significantly. If major players elevate prices with shrinking volume, it is likely still a shakeout; if one day's elevation suddenly shows high volume, it may be a true breakout. Action: Investors should closely monitor trading volume changes. When high-volume elevation occurs, consider entering. 🟢 Dead Angle Accumulation Mode Characteristics: Major players quietly accumulate chips during a downtrend, causing each subsequent price drop to be smaller or triggering a rapid drop to induce panic selling. As accumulation nears completion, retail investors exhaust their chips, forming a dead angle where the downtrend line intersects the lowest points. Action: For coins with this pattern, boldly enter and set a stop-loss slightly below the dead angle's lowest price. Waiting to Buy: After a rapid price drop, short-term investors can analyze using moving averages, trading volume, support, and resistance levels. If strong support and active buying emerge, consider entering. Already Bought at High Prices: Long-term investors can ignore short-term price fluctuations and continue holding during upward trends without rushing to buy. Combining Multiple Indicators: Players can use moving averages (MA), relative strength index (RSI), MACD, volume-price analysis, and other technical indicators to comprehensively assess market trends. Think from the perspective of major players and understand their operational intentions to follow their rhythm and profit together! Remember: Shakeout is preparation for the main upward trend. Don't fall before dawn. Let's encourage each other!
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