A lot of the time, hype doesn't come through frequent judgment. For example, in the future, ETH is likely to be much lower than this price, so except for the top pourers like Ryoko, the meaning of going to micro-operation to struggle is very limited. It has been deduced before that it will reach 800 in the medium term, which is calculated according to the -80% decline of 4000, which is still a neutral situation that is not tragic, and the 22-year metaverse narrative is broken, and it is close to this range as META (Facebook). If it's just how much it falls, it's a matter of the market and liquidity. If the fundamentals are not advantageous, then I don't know how much it will fall. As for how to get to 800, it's hard to know. As long as you know that it is 4000, the difficulty is very, very great, and it is roughly calculated according to the scale. ETH fell to 800 and still has a market cap of $100 billion. Neither SOL nor BNB has 100 billion right now. When you look at 5000 when you are in the hundreds, and when you look at 5000 now, the probability is actually lower now. Although facing the future, they are all apprehensive and confused. Now to 5000, there are two possibilities, one is to go through the Central Plains, and finally prove that the Aether family is dominant, and the others are not good; The second is that, although it can't be proved yet, the short-term dollar has changed too much, and the ether has been raised to 5000. If it's the second type, you still have to take the flatbread. Then only the first case is likely to be reversed, so considering the possibilities, everyone has their own answer. There is a high probability that the market value vacated by ETH will be occupied by these or other public chains - it is difficult for the pie to be used as a blood bag, and the copycats are used as blood bags for each other. Until the birth of a new public chain king, then its market capitalization proportion will go up and slowly surpass ETH. If ETH loses its king status, then it is likely to be lower than 800 at that time, because the king has a premium, and it will be discounted if it loses its natural premium. There is also a possibility that although it is still the king, it was relatively large before, and now it is squeezing the bubble. The narrative relies on the second layer, relies on zk, relies on splitting, and locks are all falsified, innovation does not grow out of thin air, the prototype of DeFi/NFT has been seen since the era of BTS/EOS DApp, if there is a suitable direction under the current performance, it must have appeared in the prototype, and if there is no, it means that there is no way out. As long as this framework is known, it is very meaningful to analyze specific points on a regular basis.